Heavy Snow Coming!

    As discussed yesterday Sunday into Monday may be filled with snow. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow watch  , as seen in warnings map .

Here is the Watch from the NWS:

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS BACK TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO THE WATCH AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

NYZ009-018-036-037-040730-
/O.CON.KBGM.LE.A.0004.130204T0000Z-130205T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA...
ROME
219 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE...AND
  UTICA/ROME AREAS.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW
  VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 7 INCHES...WITH MUCH HEAVIER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS AROUND 20.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT MONDAY MORNING
  WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
  CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

   Below is my snowfall map , there is a possibility for this to shift because it is very dependent on the wind direction. I believe we will see a 290-300 degree flow , which would favor a Single Band near Syracuse and a few streamers off the Finger Lakes. Starting later today we should start to see some snow from a weak system , then behind this the winds align and Lake Effect starts and will continue into Monday and possibly Tuesday. This map is for Sunday Afternoon to Tuesday Morning, accumulation will vary significantly because the band may sit over a single area for a period of time , then will begin to shift around. This map may need to be shifted south if winds take a more 300 than a 290 flow.  

     This event does seem to be one of the bigger ones of the year for the Syracuse area. The winds appear very favorable and snow growth zone is well saturated. Along with weak shear and a likely Upper Lake connection , the the band should be very strong with snowfall rates over 2in/hr at times. The Upper Lake connection is very important because Lake Huron and the Georgian Bay add a lot of moisture which increases snow totals dramatically. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas pick up over 15in of snow , but this will be localized. 

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