Cold Winter Ahead?

     The winter should continue for many , and get colder in the east. The main reason behind this will be the MJO ( Madden/ Julian Oscillation) . The MJO does not cause a El Nino or La Nina but just intensifies there effects. The MJO is a Tropical Circulation that migrates around the globe and impacts local climates. 

  


  



















  


    Here is the MJO forecast for the long range , and you can see it is heading into Phase 8 and then into Phase 1 , which are normally very conductive for Colder Weather in the Eastern US.  The MJO is not the end all when it comes to climate patterns, but is usually a big piece of the puzzle.    

    The short term does look rather cold and snowy for the North Eastern US . Cold temperatures and bitter wind chills have swept across the region m, these should stay for a while. The major question will be snowstorm potential , which as of now looks quiet over the next 3-5 days. Although many of the areas around the Great Lakes will contine to see intense lake effect bands, but these will be Localized. Central NY should see bands that drop a few inches, but heaviest bands may reside to far north to cause any major impact.

    Don't forget Groundhog day is tomorrow and hopefully he sees his shadow so we can get 6 more weeks of winter. Last year he saw his shadow and we ended up with a record Feb-Mar. So lets see if Punxsutawney Phil will be a little more accurate this year!