Big Storm For the End of the Week

A big storm system will impact many areas in the Northeast this Friday-Saturday, it should bring some heavy snow to interior Northeast and New England. Two disturbances will meet of the East Coast and cause a classic Nor'easter. The Energy dipping in from Canada will actually cause widespread snow across NY state . The actual coastal may not be close enough tot he coast to impact this area. The system dropping could be very strong and drop widespread 6in+. The exact location to this band is unknown but it should be north of the PA border. This would put the Homer area at risk for at least moderate snows.

As for snow day potential , this will depend on exact snowfall but as of now I think we have a very good chance to see some type of school dismissal or cancellation.  The timing is also very important , if it shifts to late in the day we may not see any school impact. As of now heaviest snows appear to some wheres between 10 am and pm.

Here is the Snowfall Forecast from the GFS computer model ( This will likely change )

More updates to Follow!

Lake Effect Snow

     As stated the past few days , Lake Effect snow should impact some areas. The band is starting to re-intensify and should continue to increase in coverage. The band has been rather weak , because of high wind shear. This is now changing , but this has limited the snowfall amounts thus far.

     Here is the placement of the two main bands. The most southern one is very weak , but should strengthen. The band near Syracuse should be the main band and will be the strongest, will contain snowfall rates over 2in/hr. Some areas may still see totals pushing 14-15in, but in general snow totals out side of the persistent band should be lower than forecast due to the increased wind shear early this morning

 

      Another important piece, which is just starting is an Upstream Connection. Here is the Visible Satellite Imagery, this shows clouds and other important features. The upper lakes help add moisture to the Air which then gets even more moisture from Lake Ontario. This is something to watch , because as we head into the evening bands usually become stronger because the  air becomes colder and increase the Lake to Air temperature difference.

Heavy Snow Coming!

    As discussed yesterday Sunday into Monday may be filled with snow. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow watch  , as seen in warnings map .

Here is the Watch from the NWS:

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS BACK TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO THE WATCH AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

NYZ009-018-036-037-040730-
/O.CON.KBGM.LE.A.0004.130204T0000Z-130205T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA...
ROME
219 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE...AND
  UTICA/ROME AREAS.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW
  VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 7 INCHES...WITH MUCH HEAVIER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS AROUND 20.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT MONDAY MORNING
  WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
  CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

   Below is my snowfall map , there is a possibility for this to shift because it is very dependent on the wind direction. I believe we will see a 290-300 degree flow , which would favor a Single Band near Syracuse and a few streamers off the Finger Lakes. Starting later today we should start to see some snow from a weak system , then behind this the winds align and Lake Effect starts and will continue into Monday and possibly Tuesday. This map is for Sunday Afternoon to Tuesday Morning, accumulation will vary significantly because the band may sit over a single area for a period of time , then will begin to shift around. This map may need to be shifted south if winds take a more 300 than a 290 flow.  

     This event does seem to be one of the bigger ones of the year for the Syracuse area. The winds appear very favorable and snow growth zone is well saturated. Along with weak shear and a likely Upper Lake connection , the the band should be very strong with snowfall rates over 2in/hr at times. The Upper Lake connection is very important because Lake Huron and the Georgian Bay add a lot of moisture which increases snow totals dramatically. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas pick up over 15in of snow , but this will be localized. 

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Monday may be Snowy!

    We should see some light snow today, and into tonight. Amounts should generally be less than 3in , the heavy snow may come later Sunday-Monday.  The snow Sunday- Monday will be Lake Effect snow, this is caused by cold air passing over a relatively warm lake.  Usually the heaviest Lake Effect stays North of Syracuse , but on Sunday night the winds will shift to a North-West flow. This usually sets up a heavy band in Syracuse and across the South Central NY.  There is potential for this band to become intense , mainly depends on exact wind direction and amount of moisture in the atmosphere.

     As seen above in the forecast sounding there will be both a favorable cold wind flow over Lake Ontario, and a very moist atmosphere.  Although it is nearly impossible to predict the exact location of the band this far in advance. It seems likely that areas in Onondaga, Cayuga, Madison, and Cortland Counties will see a very cold and snowy Monday AM.  The rest of next week looks like an average week, with a few more chances for snow and temperatures in the 20s , by the end of next week we should warm slightly into the the mid to upper 30s. 

Cold Winter Ahead?

     The winter should continue for many , and get colder in the east. The main reason behind this will be the MJO ( Madden/ Julian Oscillation) . The MJO does not cause a El Nino or La Nina but just intensifies there effects. The MJO is a Tropical Circulation that migrates around the globe and impacts local climates. 

  


  



















  


    Here is the MJO forecast for the long range , and you can see it is heading into Phase 8 and then into Phase 1 , which are normally very conductive for Colder Weather in the Eastern US.  The MJO is not the end all when it comes to climate patterns, but is usually a big piece of the puzzle.    

    The short term does look rather cold and snowy for the North Eastern US . Cold temperatures and bitter wind chills have swept across the region m, these should stay for a while. The major question will be snowstorm potential , which as of now looks quiet over the next 3-5 days. Although many of the areas around the Great Lakes will contine to see intense lake effect bands, but these will be Localized. Central NY should see bands that drop a few inches, but heaviest bands may reside to far north to cause any major impact.

    Don't forget Groundhog day is tomorrow and hopefully he sees his shadow so we can get 6 more weeks of winter. Last year he saw his shadow and we ended up with a record Feb-Mar. So lets see if Punxsutawney Phil will be a little more accurate this year!